India to lead global oil demand growth in 2024, surpassing China: IEA

Investor sentiment has also contributed to the price drop, with net speculative exchange holdings falling to multi-year lows, further amplifying bearish market trends. Concerns about oversupply, combined with weak demand, are weighing heavily on the oil market, the IEA report said.

India expected to lead global oil demand in 2024

Despite China’s downturn, emerging markets like Brazil and India have maintained robust oil demand, with Brazil’s agricultural exports driving oil consumption growth. India is set to take the lead in oil demand growth in 2024, with a projected increase of 200,000 barrels per day (kb/d), surpassing China for the first time.

Additionally, oil secretary Pankaj Jain said today that India wants the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) and its allies, including Russia, to raise their oil output due to rising fuel demand in the country, according to a report by Reuters. In July, India became the top buyer of Russian oil, surpassing China. The country is also the world’s third-largest oil importer and consumer, with more than 80 per cent of its oil needs coming from abroad.

India’s oil consumption saw a sharp month-on-month (M-o-M) decline of 300 kb/d in August, in line with seasonal patterns and exacerbated by heavy monsoon rains, which were 5 per cent above average according to the India Meteorological Department. Gasoil usage, a key fuel in India’s industrial sector, fell by 70 kb/d below estimates, marking negative year-on-year growth.

Despite this, India remains on track to post the largest global increase in oil consumption in 2024, with an expected rise of 200 kb/d, followed by 230 kb/d in 2025, the IEA noted.

China’s declining oil demand

One of the primary drivers of the slowdown in global oil demand has been China, where oil consumption has been in decline for four consecutive months, including a year-on-year drop of 280,000 barrels per day (bpd) in July. This contrasts sharply with the 1 million bpd average growth recorded in the previous 12 months and the post-pandemic surge of 1.5 million bpd in 2023.

China’s oil demand is now expected to grow by only 180,000 bpd in 2024, due to an economic slowdown and a shift towards alternative energy sources, such as electric vehicles (EVs). EV sales in China have soared, reducing road fuel consumption, while the expansion of the country’s high-speed rail network has also curbed domestic air travel.

Global oil demand challenges

Beyond China, oil demand growth remains tepid globally. In the United States, gasoline deliveries saw a sharp decline in June after unexpected strength in May. Overall, gasoline consumption in the US, the world’s largest oil consumer, has contracted year-on-year in five of the first six months of 2024.

Many advanced economies are also seeing shrinking oil deliveries, as structural challenges and sluggish economic growth continue to affect demand. The IEA estimates that oil use in these economies will remain around 2 million barrels per day (mb/d) below pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2024.

Given the slow recovery in oil demand across most regions and the decline in Chinese consumption, the IEA has reinforced its earlier projection that global oil demand will likely plateau by the end of this decade.

Russian oil exports decline

Russia’s oil exports dropped by 290 kb/d in August, reaching their lowest levels since March 2021. Crude exports experienced a seasonal contraction, while product exports remained relatively stable. Russian oil revenues fell sharply, with commercial export revenues dropping by $1.6 billion to $15.3 billion, marking a significant reduction from July 2023 levels.

Exports to key buyers like India and Turkey also dropped in anticipation of upcoming refinery maintenance. Urals crude prices fell by $3.50-4.00 per barrel in August, further narrowing the price gap with the G7 price cap, while product prices deteriorated at a faster pace compared to crude.

Global oil supply growth to subdue

Deliveries in June saw a contraction of 60,000 barrels per day (kb/d), capping first-half 2024 gains at 800,000 barrels per day (bpd), a significant decline in growth momentum.

In August, global oil supply increased by 80,000 bpd to 103.5 mb/d, despite outages in Libya due to political disputes and maintenance in Norway and Kazakhstan. The increase was driven by higher output from countries like Guyana and Brazil.

The IEA predicts global oil demand to expand by an average of 900,000 bpd for 2024, which is 70,000 bpd below last month’s estimate. Growth is expected to continue at this subdued pace into 2025, reaching 103.9 mb/d.

Looking ahead, the IEA expects annual supply gains to strengthen, with growth forecasted to reach 2.1 mb/d in 2025. However, demand growth is expected to remain subdued.

Opec revises oil demand forecast for 2024

In its latest Oil Market Report, released on September 10, Opec reduced its forecast for global crude oil demand for 2024 to 2.03 million bpd, following earlier cuts in August and July.

This marks the second consecutive month of downward adjustments, with the original projection set at 2.25 million bpd in July. The August revision, which lowered the estimate to 2.11 million bpd, was driven by real data from the first two quarters of 2024 and concerns over China’s economic slowdown. However, the September report downplays these concerns, citing expectations that China’s economic growth will remain stable, while stronger growth in India, Russia, and Brazil will help offset any further decline in Chinese demand.