Your money and the election: How to frame decision-making amid uncertainty

Decision-making around the November election isn’t limited to who voters plan to choose at the ballot box. Americans’ feelings about which candidate may win are also driving people’s decisions about their own finances.

Nearly two-thirds of Americans, 63%, are deferring financial decisions about vacations, car and home purchases, and remodeling projects until after the November election, according to a CFP Board survey of 1,005 Americans conducted in early August. 

But waiting for election results may not be the best move.

Experts advise evaluating if a financial decision should be made sooner, and considering the cost of waiting.  Remember, major policy changes requiring legislation take time, with the president and members of Congress in agreement.

Financial advisors say the election or its results shouldn’t be the driving factor for money decisions. Instead, they say people should focus on their own goals.

Ask yourself: “If Candidate A won or Candidate B won, would they really do something different?” said Michael Liersch, head of advice and planning at Wells Fargo.

It’s more important to consider your personal financial plan and how a big purchase relates to it. Often, the political outcome generates uncertainty over a purchase or investment decision, but it probably won’t change the outcome of whether it’s a smart move.  

“When I’m talking with a client who thinks they’re going to put something off, we go back to that plan,” said certified financial planner Liz Miller, founder and president of Summit Financial Advisors in New Jersey. Often, she said, they find that there’s no need to delay.

Consider a best-case scenario, worst-case scenario and something in between. “Within that framework, you can test it,” said Liersch. “Don’t wait for the outcome to be known. Look into it now, map out those possibilities, and see if it would even change your decision in any way, shape, or form.”

Take, for example, concerns about Social Security benefits being reduced, which 81% of respondents said was a top concern in an Edelman Financial Engines survey.

Absent action from Congress, the trust fund Social Security relies on to pay retirement benefits is due to run out in 2033. At that time, just 79% of benefits will be payable.

There are steps you can take to give you some perspective, including getting your Social Security benefit estimate and looking at where you can boost savings.

Figure what a benefit cut might mean for you: Can you budget differently in coming years to help make up for that shortfall? Paying down debt, building an emergency fund, and sticking with your investment strategy are solid moves right now, experts say.

“As you see all of these different things, these headlines, in a very uncertain world, you can feel more at peace that number one, you are doing the right things, and that you’re on solid financial footing,” said CFP Stacy Francis, president and CEO of Francis Financial in New York City. She is also a member of the CNBC Financial Advisor Council.

Francis is spending time with clients now updating their financial plans and mapping it out to age 95. Many are considering Roth conversions ahead of tax policy changes, for example.

Candidate pitches around capital gain taxes are also concerning investors. Experts say, regardless of election results, with double-digit gains in the stock market, now is a good time to evaluate whether to take some gains. 

“We are proactively talking about what is the ability to take some capital gains this year, when we know the capital gain tax rates are stable and we know what to expect,” said Miller, who is 2024 Chair-Elect of the the CFP Board.

While waiting to take action until after the election results are known, consider if it’s necessary. “Ask yourself, is delaying this decision just to see the outcome of the election, Is that really worth the distance in delaying that decision or would making the decision sooner provide a greater benefit,” said Wells Fargo’s Liersch.