India, once synonymous with rapid population growth, is now witnessing a decline in fertility rates. According to the United Nations, the country’s fertility rate has dropped to 2 children per woman as of 2024—a sharp decline from 6.2 in 1950. Although this development is consistent with worldwide trends, it presents both opportunities and difficulties for our nation. Here is all the details we require regarding the causes, effects, and national implications of this.
Why are fertility rates falling?
Several factors contribute to the decreasing fertility rate in India:
- Urbanisation and modern lifestyles: Because of improved access to education, professions, and healthcare, urban women frequently choose to raise smaller families.
- Delayed marriages, when combined with an emphasis on job development, shorten the reproductive period.
- Family planning and awareness: Improved access to contraception and family planning services has empowered couples to decide their family size.
- Economic pressures: Rising costs of living, especially in cities, make raising multiple children financially challenging.
This pattern isn’t unique to India, various countries like Japan and South Korea are already dealing with even lower fertility rates which has global implications.
Positive effects: Better resource allocation and living standards
A declining fertility rate isn’t all doom and gloom. It might just have some positives aspects attached to it too:
- Improved living standards: With fewer dependents, families may have better access to quality education, healthcare, and housing.
- Sustainable resource management: A slower population growth eases pressure on natural resources like water, land, and energy.
- Focus on women’s empowerment: Smaller families can allow women more opportunities to pursue education and careers.
These shifts could position India as a country with enhanced productivity and a better quality of life.
Negative impacts: Economic and demographic challenges
A decreasing reproductive rate has advantages, but it can also present serious problems, such as:
- Population ageing: It is expected that India’s senior population will increase significantly by 2050 which will eventually be placing strain on healthcare institutions.
- Labour shortage: Economic growth can be disturbed by a smaller workforce, especially in labour-intensive industries.
- Declining youth population: With a sizable section of its population under 25, India is currently enjoying a demographic dividend. Over time, this benefit can be undermined by a falling fertility rate.
These problems are similar to those in nations like Japan, where economic stagnation is a result of an ageing population.
How will this shape India’s future?
India’s declining fertility rate will reshape the nation’s socio-economic landscape:
- The demand for geriatric care will surge as the elderly population grows.
- With fewer children, there’s an opportunity to invest more in quality education and vocational training for the youth.
- Urban areas might adapt better due to existing healthcare and infrastructure, but rural regions could struggle with the aging population.
Policymakers must balance these shifts by fostering innovation and strengthening safety nets.
By 2050, the global fertility rate is expected to drop from 2.3 in 2021 to 1.8. However, it is expected that low-income nations would continue to have higher rates, highlighting the striking differences.
