The Bank of England has maintained its guidance for “gradual” interest rate cuts next year, following surprise support for a reduction this month.
Its rate-setting committee, while deciding to keep Bank rate on hold at 4.75%, noted higher than expected wage rises and inflation despite a slowdown in the economy over the second half of the year.
However, three members backed a cut, meaning the vote came in at 6-3 in favour of no change.
Just one dissenting voice had been expected.
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Governor Andrew Bailey said: “We think a gradual approach to future interest rate cuts remains right, but with the heightened uncertainty in the economy we can’t commit to when or by how much we will cut rates in the coming year.”
He later said in an interview: “I think the path is downwards but… we’ll come back at our next meeting in February and review it again.”
Earlier this month, Mr Bailey voiced concerns about how businesses would react to budget measures, such as the hike to employer national insurance contributions from April.
Lobby groups and many individual firms have warned the additional costs will be passed on – risking further inflationary pressure.
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Business reacts to shrinking economy
Mr Bailey also noted a worry tit-for-tat trade tariffs would add to the acceleration in price growth. US president-elect Donald Trump has warned of tariffs covering all US imports as part of his agenda to protect US industry and jobs.
The Bank said on Thursday it was still evaluating the effects of the budget on the outlook.
It has also consistently spoken of the threat to rate cuts from salaries.
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Inflation rises to 2.6%
The Bank does not like wages going up too fast – currently at twice the rate of price growth – because it can fuel future demand in the economy and make inflation worse in the longer term.
Economists had been widely expecting four rate cuts in 2025 on the back of the two reductions this year as inflation fell back towards the Bank’s 2% target following the West’s energy-led price shock.
But financial markets, which had tipped a similar future path up until a few weeks ago, now see only two quarter point reductions priced in due to additional weight on inflation.
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However, the chances of a rate reduction at the Bank’s next meeting in February rose from near 50% to 66%, according to LSEG data after the minutes of the 18 December meeting were published.
Such a move would be broadly welcomed by millions of borrowers also still feeling the pinch from the wider cost of living crisis.
Prices have generally not been falling but rising at a much slower pace. Energy bill hikes for the coming winter are among the current pressures on household spending.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves said: “I know families are still struggling with high costs. We want to put more money in the pockets of working people, but that is only possible if inflation is stable and I fully back the Bank of England to achieve that.
“Improving living standards across the country is our number one focus, and is why I chose to protect working people’s pay slips from tax rises, froze fuel duty and increased the National Living Wage for three million people.”
